© 7Days 2007
ドバイの住宅価格は２００９年には落ち着く・・・
26 September 2007
With supply set to outstrip demand in Dubai's residential market in the coming year, a fall in prices is now not expected until 2009, according to a report from regional investment bank EFG-Hermes. The report highlights that the market has witnessed a far slower pace of completed project handovers this year, with only 11,000 units of the expected 57,000 units coming on stream, meaning that supply continues to lag behind demand.
This supply lag has led to revised housing unit supply forecasts for the next three to four years, with estimates of 25,000 housing units for the whole of this year, 64,000 next year, and 68,000 in 2009.
On the other hand, demand for property continues to rise with population growth. Based on the assumption that Dubai's population will rise to 1.9 million by 2010, up from 1.4 million currently, demand now calls for 45,000 to 50,000 new units per annum.
"Supply in the residential property market is and will continue to be constrained in 2007," explained Sana Kapadia, research analyst at EFG-Hermes. "We predict that the peak year for supply will now be 2009 - meaning that the market is unlikely to see a price decline before this occurs. We expect a rise in average prices of 10-15 per cent in 2007 and a rise of 5-10 per cent in 2008. Following a peak in the second half of next year, as more supply hits the market, prices will start to decline again in 2009, with a cumulative decline of 15-20 per cent by 2011."
The extent of the price correction in 2009 will depend primarily on the pace at which new units are delivered.
With supply set to outstrip demand in Dubai's residential market in the coming year, a fall in prices is now not expected until 2009, according to a report from regional investment bank EFG-Hermes. The report highlights that the market has witnessed a far slower pace of completed project handovers this year, with only 11,000 units of the expected 57,000 units coming on stream, meaning that supply continues to lag behind demand.
This supply lag has led to revised housing unit supply forecasts for the next three to four years, with estimates of 25,000 housing units for the whole of this year, 64,000 next year, and 68,000 in 2009.
On the other hand, demand for property continues to rise with population growth. Based on the assumption that Dubai's population will rise to 1.9 million by 2010, up from 1.4 million currently, demand now calls for 45,000 to 50,000 new units per annum.
"Supply in the residential property market is and will continue to be constrained in 2007," explained Sana Kapadia, research analyst at EFG-Hermes. "We predict that the peak year for supply will now be 2009 - meaning that the market is unlikely to see a price decline before this occurs. We expect a rise in average prices of 10-15 per cent in 2007 and a rise of 5-10 per cent in 2008. Following a peak in the second half of next year, as more supply hits the market, prices will start to decline again in 2009, with a cumulative decline of 15-20 per cent by 2011."
The extent of the price correction in 2009 will depend primarily on the pace at which new units are delivered.
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